Gaming Out Duke’s Bracketology

A crucial disclaimer: this article, by design, isn’t for everyone.

There’s a large contingent of college basketball fans who loathe the incessant discussion of “resumes” and “bracketology” by the rotating panel of national talking heads. It’s a very reasonable perspective to take. Luckily for Duke fans in this camp, this year all the Blue Devils have to do is keep winning and they should coast to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of Q1 wins, efficiency metrics, and wins-above-bubble.

For those who do engage in the resume conversation, however, the last two weeks of the season can be all the more fun. A random Wednesday afternoon game in the Big 12 tournament may not be engaging on its own, but if a win by Texas keeps Duke’s victory firmly in Q1, that game becomes more meaningful for Blue Devil fans. The investment in each contest created by filling out your bracket is part of the magic of March Madness, and it can extend into the month’s first two weeks if you so choose.

For Duke, there’s much less at stake this season, with a No. 1 seed all but sewn up at this stage. But more than is typical, earning the No. 1 overall seed will come with extra benefits this year: beyond the supposed easier bracket, the No. 1 overall seed will be assured of not having to meet either of the other two teams in the clear Top 3—Duke, Michigan, and Arizona—until the National Championship game.

The Blue Devils should be in the lead for that No. 1 overall seed at the moment, considering the Selection Committee itself had Duke just behind Michigan before the Blue Devils defeated the Wolverines on a neutral court. But while Duke has continued to dominate since that victory, both Michigan and Arizona have also been impressive, arguably against better competition in the Big 10 and Big 12 respectively.

At the moment, Duke leads the trio in key analytics used by the Selection Committee, including the aforementioned and newly emphasized wins-above-bubble (WAB). Michigan is the closest to the Blue Devils in the analytics, but a toss-up between those teams would likely be decided by Duke’s head-to-head victory.

But given the strength of the Big 12, there’s still a circumstance in which both the Blue Devils and Wildcats win out but Arizona lays claim to that top spot given the stronger competition in the Big 12 Tournament. This could increase the Wildcats lead in the all important number of Q1 victories despite trailing Duke analytically.

So, for the bracketology-curious fan, what would need to happen for Duke to improve its Q1 resume? There are three games that currently sit in Q2 that could jump to Q1: Duke’s home wins against Clemson and SMU and its road contest against Florida State. Clemson and SMU each are within shouting distance of the NET Top 30, while Florida State is nearing the NET Top 75. Those three ACC opponents are teams Blue Devil fans should be rooting for over the next two weeks.

Who stands in those teams’ way? Losses by Kentucky, Iowa, Georgia, Wisconsin, Villanova, and Ohio State could clear a path to the NET Top 30. Florida State could jump with an ACC Tournament run and if teams like Minnesota, Wake Forest, LSU, Dayton, Northwestern, Arizona State, and Providence are bumped early from their conference tournaments. Arizona State faltering would have the extra effect of stealing a Q1 win from Arizona.

Is this a silly exercise? Of course. It’s certainly not something likely to penetrate the Duke locker room, where the Blue Devils are laser-focused on raising banners by winning the games in their control. But if you’re scouring the schedule looking for a game to watch over the next few days, this could help you find one that count indirectly help Duke lock down the best path possible in March Madness.