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EspañolMarch is right around the corner and teams are getting desperate to make the big dance, while others are trying to climb as high as they can in terms of seeding. We have some monumental matchups to determine regular season champions like Gonzaga at Saint Mary's, while St. John's needs to win out to secure the Big East. Here are my best bets for Saturday, February 28th with odds courtesy of DraftKings. Best of luck!
Alabama at Tennessee (-5.5): O/U 162.5
Alabama lost to Tennessee at home, 79-73, as a -3.5 point favorite and is now a +4.5 to +5.5 point road underdog at Tennessee, which is a big swing in odds.
However, Bama didn’t have Amari Allen (12.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.4 APG) or Aden Holloway (16.9 PPG, 4.1 APG) in that game. Both are healthy and playing well lately. Allen has scored at least 16 points in three-straight games and grabbed six-plus rebounds in six of the last seven games. Holloway has scored in double-figures in eight-consecutive games and is coming off a 16-point, 10-assist, and 7-rebound performance in the last game.
Those two bodies will help Alabama extract some revenge in a game that was physical the first time around. Bama led at the half (39-36) before letting the game slip from their grasp. I think they can win this time around, so I will take the points at +5.5 down to +4.5.
In February, Alabama has the 7th-rated offense in the country, and Tennessee is 38th — the Vols have a big edge defensively (15th vs 110th), but the Vols have also played the easier strength of schedule. Bama is shooting almost 10% better from 2 this month and 7% from 3. I will take the Tide.
Pick: Alabama +5.5 (1 unit)
Gonzaga (-1.5) at Saint Mary’s: O/U 142.5
This game is for all the marbles in the WCC. If Gonzaga wins, they are the outright WCC regular season champion, and if Saint Mary’s wins, the Gaels are a split regular season champion, which is why the line is likely so low. This is also the final regular-season meeting as WCC opponents. Gonzaga will move to the new-look Pac-12 next year.
These teams met on January 31st, and Gonzaga won 73-65 as an -8.5 point home favorite. Now the Bulldogs are a -1.5 point road underdog, which is a huge shift in the line. I think Gonzaga is clearly the better team this year, and Saint Mary’s won the WCC last season, which wasn’t too surprising, as it was somewhat of a down year for Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs are much better than last year.
Since they met, Saint Mary’s is 15th on Barttorvik and Gonzaga is 19th and both rank in the top 50 both ways for offensive and defensive efficiency. This will be a great game, but for one last time, I will take Gonzaga on the ML and at a reasonable price of -130.
Pick: Gonzaga ML (1 unit)
BYU (-1.5) at West Virginia: O/U 141.5
BYU was down by 36 points to UCF at one point and basically sleepwalking in the first-half of that embarrassing loss. Now, they go to West Virginia as a short favorite, which I think is a misprice. BYU is definitely the better team, but will the effort be there? I think so.
WVU has lost three-straight games and won’t make the NCAA Tournament. WVU is the 165th-ranked team per Barttorvik during their 3-game losing streak. They rank 356th in defensive rebounding percentage, 290th in offensive three-point percentage (29.3%), and 265th in defensive three-point percentage (38.2%) during this losing streak. The Mountaineers are also shooting 65% from the free-throw line at home (352nd) and after starting out 13-0 at home, they have lost the last three to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Utah.
BYU is basically just as bad in three-point shooting and defense during that span, so whoever is hotter from deep will have the upperhand. The Cougars cannot have anymore bad losses, and this would be one, in my opinion. I will take BYU on the ML as WVU is 1-4 in the last 5 games and playing itself off the bubble.
Pick: BYU ML (1 unit)
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Washington: O/U 153.5
Washington beating Ohio State at home and Oregon without Nate Bittle are their best wins on the season, and that is not impressive enough for me to think they will knock off Wisconsin at home. Yes, Wisconsin lost its last game at Oregon, and is on its West Coast road trip, but I think the Badgers are in a good spot to bounce back.
Washington was without Frank Kepnang and JJ Mandaquit in the last game, and that could be aproblem, specifically Kepnang, their center. Wisconsin went 14-of-45 from three vs Oregon, so I expect them to attack the paint a lot more against Washington, plus the Huskies don’t force turnovers and turn the ball over themselves. On top of that, Washington is 2-4 in the last 6 games with wins over Minnesota and Rutgers, two of the bottom teams in the Big Ten.
Pick: Wisconsin ML (1 unit)
Villanova at St. John’s (-7.5): O/U 146.5
Saint John’s was pummeled by UConn in one of the most embarrassing shooting performances of the season, and now the Big East regular-season crown is on the line and a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
The Red Storm will have to win out, and this is their biggest test left, with Georgetown and Seton Hall remaining on the schedule. Villanova has been a surprise with Kevin Willard, but they weren’t able to hang with St. John’s in the first meeting as the home team.
The Wildcats’ largest lead in that game was only 4 points, while the Johnnies were up 17 points at one point in the second half. St. John’s was a -2 point road favorite and won, 86-79. Coming off that loss for St. John’s, I think we see a concentrated effort for the Red Storm and Villanova to go 0-4 versus St. John’s and UConn. The Wildcats are a 68% free-throw shooting team and knocking down 32.5% of their threes this month (240th) with subpar rebounding percentages. I like St. John’s and will be looking to play the first-half spread at -2.5 or -3 after the full game spread moved from -5.5 to -7.5 on me.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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