In the lab: Astros third base offense

We continue our trip throughout the diamond with a stop at the hot corner. Officially, the Astros are likely to have three players on the final 26 man roster that can play third base. However, we profiled Isaac Paredes at first base since he is likely to get more time there and Nick Allen will be profiled at shortstop. That leaves Carlos Correa as the primary third baseman, but we will also profile Shay Whitcomb since he is likely to be one of the first guys up in case of injury.

In this series, we are looking at some internal numbers that experts typically look at when they are trying to predict what a hitter might do. Obviously, teams have their own internal numbers and we will likely never have a chance to see those, but Fangraphs.com provides terrific information on each player that can keep us sustained for days or even weeks.

I have selected five such metrics to look at in order to predict what likely might happen in each players’ case. In particular, each number has its league norms as I will profile below, but I like to use three year intervals because it demonstrates a trend in each metric. Those trends are often more important than the league average itself. In Shay Whitcomb’s case we will be looking at his minor league numbers since he has not had enough big league exposure.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.

• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Carlos Correa

At this point in Correa’s career it is fair to expect to start seeing some rot. What we can see is that most of the numbers have remained constant except for the pure power numbers. It is fair to ask whether that is a predictor of things to come or whether that was a blip on the radar. Correa has always seemed like a guy that should hit more home runs than he does and when you look at the hard hit rate that partially explains it. He hits the ball hard routinely. He is not in the very top in the league in that category, but he is easily in the top 20 percent.

When you hit the ball hard you will typically have a good BABIP. This is particularly true if you are hitting more ground balls and line drives than flyballs. Correa is what happens when a player is decidedly above average at every single skill. That has a way of compounding and making a player sneakily good. Believe it or not, seeing a player that does each of the four skills (recognize strikes, hit the ball hard, make consistent contact, and hit for power) at an above average rate. Most players have a hole somewhere.

If we are hoping for growth from Correa then it would come in the power department. It will be interesting to see what happens now that he is in Daikan Park for a full season. Minnesota is not the easiest park in the league for home runs and obviously that short porch in left field might give Correa a boost. He’s not likely to go nuts, but maybe 15 to 20 home runs is in the offing.

Shay Whitcomb

At some point, we will need to get Jimmy Price on the line for some of these guys, because I will be fascinated to hear the opinion of someone more connected to the scouting world. Whitcomb is another Astros farmhand that seems to be missing the contact tool. The chase rate in 2023 only includes his AAA at bats because Fangraphs does not track AA and below. So, it is likely that his actual rate was below that.

A reader asked a question about ballpark effects and he was talking mainly about minor league parks. That is the missing piece here. We see some pretty stark home run rates there at the end and that probably is not sustainable at the big league level. He might live between 10 and 15 percent even if he adjusts to big league pitching. That makes Whitcomb suddenly look a lot more normal.

All that being said, no one considers Whitcomb to be a huge prospect, so he is just a good guy for organizational depth. One could imagine the profile above actually working in a lesser MLB city where the stakes aren’t so high like the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, or Angels. Maybe one of those teams have a middling bullpen arm or lottery ticket further away from the big leagues. He could also be a throw in come July. What do you expect from the Correa and Whitcomb this season?