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Last week, Camden Chat’s Tyler Young wrote of Kyle Bradish: “All of this offseason talk around the Orioles’ ‘need’ for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house.”
I’d venture to say they might even have two.
That belief, of course, depends on how much you’re banking on Trevor Rogers’ 2025 breakthrough being sustainable. The lefty, who’d been all but written off after his rough O’s debut in 2024, was a revelation last year, breaking franchise and MLB records on his way to a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts and earning Most Valuable Oriole honors. He was the Birds’ shining light in an otherwise dismal season, and he’ll most certainly be starting one of the Orioles’ first two games of the year.
The projection systems, though, are not sold that Rogers has turned into a true ace.
- ZiPS: 25 GS, 3.95 ERA, 2.1 WAR
- Steamer: 26 GS, 4.20 ERA, 1.9 WAR
While even the most optimistic Orioles fans probably aren’t expecting Rogers to post a 1.81 mark again, the projections predict a particularly sharp regression of more than 200 points of ERA. They also forecast that even if he gets 7-8 more starts than last year, he’ll be worth far less than the 3.3 WAR he posted in 2025.
The projections don’t have any vendetta or personal beef against Rogers. Remember: they aren’t human. They’re just formulas, spitting out numbers based on a whole bunch of data. And in this case, Rogers’ less-than-stellar career up until 2025 waters down the projections for his 2026 season. In his three previous years, he posted ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92. And his 2025 stats, while mind-blowing, came in just 18 starts, just over half of a season’s worth. So it’s no surprise that the emotionless, unfeeling computers aren’t predicting great things for his 2026 campaign.
But what about you, Camden Chatters? What do you think Rogers is capable of this season? Let us know in the comments.