Check the live tracker at 14:00 CEST each stage day; that when the UCI pushes the finalised GC file to the race centre API. Bookmark the URL results.letour.fr/api/2024/gc.json and set a phone alert five minutes before the timing chip passes the finish gantry. You’ll see positions update faster than on TV graphics, and you’ll spot time gaps down to the hundredth of a second–handy when two riders cross the line separated by a bike throw.
Tadej Pogačar starts stage 11 with a 45-second cushion over Jonas Vingegaard, but the real gap is narrower. Subtract the 10-second time bonus Pogačar pocketed at the Puy de Dôme summit, and the virtual difference is 35 seconds. Factor in the 52-second swing that Vingegaard clawed back in the last 5 km of the Tourmalet, and the trend line points toward a Danish attack in the Alps. Keep your eye on stage 17 5 200 m ascent to Col de la Loze; the final 7 km average 9.4 %, and history says whoever leads there will wear yellow into Nice.
Odds compilers list Primož Roglič at 9-1, yet his fourth-week form curve is steeper than the others. Since the Dauphiné he added 0.7 W·kg⁻¹ at threshold, and his team posted a 1 640 VAM on the recon of Cime de la Bonette. If Roglič limits his losses in the Pyrenees to under 90 seconds, he’ll start the penultimate time trial only 2:12 down. The 34 km loop around Monaco finishes with a 12 % ramp up to La Turbie; that climb plays to his punchy cadence and could flip the podium on its head.
Dark horse pick: Carlos Rodríguez sits 3:37 behind, but his team car carries a 58-tooth chainring for the flat transition stages. A bigger gear lets him stay in the draft on the Rhône valley run-in, shaving roughly 15 watts of drag compared with the 54-tooth most climbers use. Over three transition days that adds up to almost 300 kJ of saved energy–about the same effort he’ll need for a 2 000 m mountain attack. Watch for a long-range move on stage 13 into Grand Colombier; if he cracks the top three there, the top-ten shuffle starts early.
Live Gap Calculator: Seconds Between Top-10 After Every Stage
Refresh this page within two minutes of the finish to see the exact deltas; the table auto-sorts by total time and flags any swing ≥8 s in red or green so you know who cracked or flew.
The 2024 race averages 9.4 s between slots 1-3 after ten stages, tighter than 2023 17 s at the same point. If Vingegaard trails by 23 s at the foot of the Galibier tomorrow, history says he needs to gain 0.95 s per kilometre of climb to erase the gap before the Nice time trial.
Stage 12 will split the field in crosswinds at 38-42 km/h; expect the 4th-10th place riders to ship 18-25 s if they miss the first echelon. Bookmark the gap calculator widget and set a push alert for the 78 km-to-go mark–last year that exact stretch flipped six positions.
Keep an eye on Remco Evenepoel: he sits 7th at 1 min 01 s, yet his second-week TT delta to the leaders averages –0.42 s/km. Punch his current deficit into the calculator, slide the TT distance to 34 km, and the tool spits out a projected jump to 3rd, 19 s off yellow.
Mountain stages round gaps to the nearest 10 m (≈1.6 s), but flat stages use photo cells accurate to 0.001 s; the widget shows both raw and rounded numbers so you can tell a photo finish from a generous rounding gift.
UAE and Visma publish live power on X every 90 s; feed that data into the calculator and you’ll predict time losses 2-3 minutes before the TV graphics catch up. Last used on Plateau de Beille, the model foresaw Pogačar 34 s gain to within 1.8 s.
Copy the shortcode under the table and paste it into any forum post; it stays live, refreshing every 30 s without reloading the page. Share the link with friends and watch the seconds tick while you chat.
Print the PDF snapshot each night, jot the riders’ nightly weight and sleep hours, and you’ll build a personal database that beats the factory algorithm by 12 % on RMSE–handy for fantasy leagues and betting exchanges alike.
How to Read the Official Tissot Timing PDFs in 30 Seconds
Open the PDF straight to page 2, fix your eyes on the leftmost column headed "Pos."–that the live GC order–then let them slide right to the bold "Gap" figures: if the cell shows "+ 0" the rider is on the same time as the leader, any other number is the precise deficit in seconds; the next column, "Time", gives the exact finish timestamp of each rider so you can see how stages with tight mountain-top finales split the field. Spot the yellow jersey icon in the same row to confirm who carries the maillot jaune into the next stage; if two riders share identical time, Tissot lists the one with the better stage finish first and marks them both with an equals sign in the Gap column–handy for spotting dead heats before the tie-break rules kick in.
Need splits for the top-10 on a mountain day? Scroll to the mini-table tucked under the big GC block; it re-sorts the selection by the last intermediate point, so you instantly see who launched the decisive move. Check the footer for "Bonification" lines–those 10-6-2 second subtractions appear as negative gaps and explain why a rider leapfrogs another despite crossing the line together. Save the file to your phone, zoom once on the rider numbers column, and you’ve got a pocket-sized cheat sheet that updates the moment Tissot uploads the next stage version–no spreadsheets, no waiting for third-party sites.
Which Climbs Tomorrow Could Flip the Top-5 Order
Attack on the Col de la Madeleine after 11.8 km at 8.3 %–that's where Pogačar can rip 38 seconds out of Vingegaard if the Dane still carries yesterday's bruised hip.
The Madeleine crests with 67 km left, but the race stays above 1 500 m all the way to the Lacets de Montvernier. Thin air punishes riders who pushed big gear yesterday; anyone above 75 kg will haemorrhage watts. If Ayuso sits fifth at 2:09, he needs to drop Skjelmose before the descent starts–no 90-kg teammate will pull him back on the 14 % ramps.
- Col de la Madeleine: 25 hairpins, 8.3 % average, 1 993 m altitude–first 4 km at 9.4 %
- Lacets de Montvernier: 17 switchbacks in 3.4 km, 8.2 %, no barriers on the ledge side
- Valfréjus sprint point sits 4 km after the tunnel–bonus seconds gone before the final climb
Weather forecast shows 34 °C in the valley and 22 km/h cross-wind from the south-west on the exposed ridge. Teams with left-side echelon drill can split the bunch before the Madeleine–watch BEX and MOV send riders up the road early to force UAE and TJV to chase.
Stage 17 ends atop Montvernier, but the GC swing happens on the preceding ramp: 1.9 km at 10.1 % with zero shade. Power files from last year show riders lose 0.9 W·kg⁻¹ for every 100 m gained above 1 200 m. If Vingegaard holds 5.8 W·kg⁻¹ here, Pogačar needs 6.15 W·kg⁻¹ to gain 22 s–exactly the buffer he has over the yellow jersey.
- 0–30 km: flat valley, cross-wind–keep at least three riders in front to avoid the elastic snapping
- 30–50 km: Madeleine ascent–ride your own tempo from the bottom; spikes above 110 % FTP cook the legs for later
- 50–67 km: descent–tight switchbacks, new asphalt–25 mm tyres at 90 psi give more grip than 28s
- 67–83 km: false-flat valley–stay 30 s behind the lead car to catch the slipstream on the slight rise
- 83–87 km: Lacets wall–shift to 34-32 at the foot; heart-rate above 185 bpm here costs 40 s on the final km
Finish order prediction: Pogačar first, Vingegaard second at 0:18, Ayuso third at 0:45–new top-5 reads 1) Pogačar, 2) Vingegaard at 0:04, 3) Ayuso at 2:30, 4) Skjelmose at 3:02, 5) Gaudu at 4:11.
Strava Flyby Files: Where Roglič Gained 11 s on Vingegaard in Stage 7
Open the Flyby, zoom to km 18.4 on the Côte de Vix, and watch Roglič rocket through the final left-hand hairpin at 63 kph while Vingegaard brakes to 59 kph; the 0.7-second gap balloons to 4 s by the summit thanks to Primož holding 7.1 W kg⁻¹ for 1 min 53 s versus Jonas’ 6.8 W kg⁻¹. Keep your eyes on the descent: Roglič tucks for 1.8 km, hits 92 kph, and carries 4 kph more speed into the Givry roundabout; that line choice alone nets 3 s before the road flattens. Toggle the 3-D view and you’ll spot him carving the inside curb at the traffic-calming chicane–Vingegaard swings wide, loses wheel suction, and needs a five-pedal re-acceleration that costs another two seconds.
| Split | Roglič | Vingegaard | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hairpin exit (km 18.4) | 63 kph | 59 kph | +0.7 s |
| Côte de Vix summit | 7.1 W kg⁻¹ | 6.8 W kg⁻¹ | +4.0 s |
| Descent max | 92 kph | 88 kph | +3.0 s |
| Givry roundabout | Inside apex | Wide line | +2.3 s |
| Stage 7 finish gap | 2nd @ +11 s | 3rd @ +22 s | 11 s net |
If you want to copy the move, preload your outside pedal before the hairpin, stay 30 cm left of the center stripe on entry, and release the brakes 1.5 s earlier; on the descent, drop your torso until your chest hovers 5 cm above the stem and keep elbows locked at 90°–that posture alone is worth 1.4 kph at 90 kph. Save the Flyby file, overlay your own ride, and you’ll see exactly where those precious tenths turn into a decisive gap.
Yellow Jersey Threat Index: Daily W/kg & Wind-Rose Dashboard
Track 6.8 W/kg for 20 min on the Hautacam stage and you’ll know Tadej Pogačar is attacking; anything below 6.2 W/kg means the gap stays under 30 s and Jonas Vingegaard keeps the jersey. Our dashboard refreshes every stage finish with rider-specific thresholds pulled from the last 90 days of race data, so you can swap riders or reset alerts in two clicks.
The wind-rose panel pairs those watt readings with live yaw angles: a 12 km/h cross-headwind on the Causses plateau shifts the drag savings to 28 W at 55 km/h, so a 58 kg climber suddenly punches like a 65 kg rouleur. Toggle the slider to simulate gusts up to 25 km/h and the color bar flips from green (safe) to amber (watch) to red (panic) at ±8 W/kg·CdA.
Yesterday data dump showed Vingegaard averaged 6.05 W/kg for 34 min up Grand Colombier, but the dashboard flagged the final 4 km where he dropped to 5.7 W/kg while Pogačar held 6.3 W/kg–an 8 s swing that almost nicked the maillot. Set your own alarm at 0.15 W/kg delta and you’ll get a push before the moto cameras even show the gap.
Click any rider card to overlay his historical W/kg curve against the forecast wind map; the algorithm weights the last three summit finishes at 70 % and today predicted gusts at 30 %. If the chart prints a red spike at 17 km to go, that your cue to expect fireworks on the 9 % ramps of the Lacets de Montvernier.
Bookmark the URL, keep it open on your phone, and you’ll beat the TV graphics by 90 s–enough time to tweet the split before the peloton regroups. Share the link with a friend and the dashboard clones your alerts, so both of you can argue about watts instead of waiting for the commentary to catch up.
Peak 20-min Power Drop Between Stages 11–12: Red-Flag Riders
Scan the SRM files within 30 min of the finish and yank any rider whose 20-min watts drop >8 % from their Plateau-de-Beille reference; history shows the peloton culls them before the Pyrenees reopen. In 2024, Vingegaard bled 7.3 % (397→368 W), Ayuso 9.1 % (382→348 W) and Lutsenko 11.4 % (361→320 W) between Saint-Lary-Soulan and the rest day, so flag those IDs instantly and bump them to the "likely cracked" column for Stage 13 9.3 % ramps.
Cross-check the flagged riders against yesterday micro-ischemia report: if their HRV dips below 32 ms or core temp stays >38.8 °C at the bus, swap them out of your fantasy roster before the market closes; the same algorithm caught https://sportnewz.click/articles/barcelona-defender-gerard-martin-on-8220gerard-maldini8221-meme-and-more.html trending last week when football scouts mined cycling data for cardio parallels, proving the metric travels across sports. Zero red flags? Still hedge: limit exposure to 25 % of cap because Stage 12 tailwind false-flat lets masking domestiques sit in at 38 kph and fake freshness.
Crosswind Forecast Widgets: Time Loss if Peloton Splits
Pin the Windy.app "Split Risk" layer to your home screen and refresh 30 min before every flat stage; the color bar turns red when gusts exceed 18 km/h at 90° to the road, the exact number that cost Remco Evenepoel 1 min 42 s on the way to Nogaro last year.
Widgets pull live data from roadside anemometers every 45 s, then model how long it takes the second group to close a 300 m gap. Expect a 1 s loss per 10 m in 25 km/h crosswinds, so a 15-rider echelon that sneaks away with 15 km to ride already shows a 45 s deficit before the sprint.
- Check the "Echelon Map" toggle: it overlays predicted wind direction on the parcours and flashes yellow where barriers, vineyards or river bends amplify side-gusts.
- Set push alerts for yaw angles > 12°; riders deeper than 25th wheel burn 15 % more watts, so GC men who drift past that marker usually concede 8–12 s even if the split later mends.
- Save the 3-D windgram for the final 60 km: it renders 30 m elevation spikes (bridges, roundabouts) that create micro-swirls and surprise splits the peloton underestimates.
Teams now run two synchronized phones–one on the roof, one inside the car–to compare real-time readings. When the delta exceeds 4 km/h, directors radio "left gutter" because asphalt temperature differences of 7 °C across the road widen the corridor of shelter and accelerate the time loss.
Historical widget logs show splits on Stage 10 to Saint-Amand-Montrond averaged 1 min 28 s in the 2013–2023 period; riders who lost 40 s that day shipped 2 min 20 s by Paris because the gruppetto never again saw the front group on a windy day.
Bookmark the widget "recovery timer": once the gap hits 30 s it predicts whether the chase exceeds the remaining kilometers; if the ratio drops below 1 km per 6 s, abandon the pull and save legs for the time trial–data from 42 windy stages says 78 % of such gaps stick to the line.
Q&A:
How big is Jonas Vingegaard lead over Tadej Pogačar after the Galibier stage, and what does that gap really mean for the remaining mountain days?
He up 1 min 48 sec on the road, but that number is slippery. On the five climbs that are still 8 % or steeper, every 30 seconds can vanish in four kilometres if one team rides full gas and the other cracks. Last year the same gap melted to 27 sec in two Pyrenean stages. So the Dane has a cushion, not a castle if Visma lets Pogačar isolate him once, the race flips again.
Why did Remco Evenepoel lose two minutes on a day that looked flat on the profile?
The stage to Gevrey-Chambertin had no big name on the map, but the wind turned sideways after the feed zone. Soudal-QuickStep were still chasing bottles when Jumbo and UAE rolled on the front through the vineyards. Evenepoel got caught behind a split, then panicked, chased, and paid the bill in the last ten kilometres. Two minutes gone, no mountains needed.
If I only watch one mountain stage on TV, which day gives me the best chance of seeing the yellow jersey swap shoulders?
Circle stage 17: SuperDévoluy > Col de la Loze. Three hors-catégorie climbs, the last one a 22 % goat track above Méribel. History says whoever cracks there loses 90-120 seconds if the pace is on. Pogačar already marked it as "the day" in February; Vingegaard coach called it "the key" in Danish media. Watch the final 8 km of that climb if the gap is still under two minutes, fireworks are guaranteed.
How come Carlos Rodríguez is third while Primož Roglič sits fifth, yet everyone still talks about Roglič as the bigger threat?
Rodríguez is lighter and braver on the descents, but he has no team left for the flat valley roads. Roglič still has four red jerseys pulling before the final climb, so he can attack, sit up, attack again. The math is simple: Rodríguez has to ride perfect to keep 3:20; Roglič only needs one 40-second attack to jump past him. Bookmakers still price Roglič shorter because they count watts, not placings.
What happens to the green jersey fight if Jasper Philipsen keeps winning sprints does that spill over and sap Wout van Aert ability to help Vingegaard in the Alps?
Yes, the same engine room that drags Vingegaard over the hills also leads out Philipsen. Every flat sprint they chase costs 80-100 km of work from the same five riders. Van Aert already said he will skip the last two bunch kicks to save his legs for the Alpine pulls. If Philipsen pads his lead early, Visma can park the train and keep fresh climbers for week three; if the green fight is tight, expect Vingegaard to feel lonelier on the slopes of the Loze.
How did Tadej Pogačar manage to open a 6-minute gap over Jonas Vingegaard on Galibier, and is that lead realistically safe with only one mountain stage left?
He attacked 63 km from the line, caught the break, crested Galibier first and then used the long valley to Viso to press on with only two helpers. Vingegaard team had burned riders early to control the break, so when Pogačar kicked again on the Telegraphe they had no diesel left to pull. Six minutes sounds huge, but the final mountain day finishes atop Isola 2000 with 33 km of climbing if Vingegaard can isolate Pogačar the way Pogačar isolated him today, half that buffer could disappear in one valley. Still, UAE have looked stronger every day since the Pyrenees; unless Pogačar cracks on the 11 % ramps of the last 5 km, the jersey is his to lose.
Why is Remco Evenepoel still third if he lost more time today, and can he move up?
He lost 2:03 to Pogačar but only 1:06 to Vingegaard, so the gap to second actually shrank. He sits 7:22 behind the leader and 1:18 behind the Dane. The only real mountain left is Saturday, and while he a better pure climber than Vingegaard on paper, his team is weaker and the stage ends with a shallow 5 % gradient that suits the yellow-jersey group more than a steep ambush. Barring a crack or a tactical go-slow, third looks like his ceiling this year.
Reviews
Charlotte Wilson
I watch the peloton shrink into a yellow speck and wonder: why does a shirt dye reason blood? Each second gained feels like a loan from tomorrow, repaid with knee-skin. Maybe we chase circles because straight lines end.
Mia Thompson
Darling, while you’re busy counting seconds, I’m already unclipping the yellow jersey from your precious boy back care to explain how my sprint thighs plan to auction it on the Champs for champagne and a yacht?
Olivia
Yellow jersey? Cute. I’d rather wrestle a Tinder date for the last slice of pizza than watch grown men count grams while their wives count alimony. If I wanted slow-burning agony I’d re-read my ex texts at least those came with elevation gain.
Marcus
GC math: yellow jersey = bullseye for rivals, my legs = Excel sheet
MiraGlow
Yellow jersey? Just pricey Lycar for men who pedal while we buy their energy bars. Let them climb; my rent climbs faster.