The Celtics are closing in on an interesting benchmark for potential NBA contenders. Their current record is 37-19, which puts 40-20 in play. For those that aren’t familiar, the 40-20 rule is defined as follows (via NBA reddit):
The 40-20 rule, coined by Phil Jackson, states that legitimate NBA championship contenders must secure 40 wins before losing 20 games. This benchmark, emphasizing consistency and dominance, holds a 90.9% success rate, with 40 of the last 44 champions meeting this criteria since 1979-80.
The Celtics have had a strong recent record, going 8-2 in their last 10 and overall are at a .661 winning percentage for the season. They have two more West coast road trip games against the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. Then they return home against the Brooklyn Nets. If they can win the next 3 games, they’ll have met the criteria for the 40-20 rule.
Of course there’s a Jayson Tatum sized “yeah but” to consider here. The premise of this rule is that teams performing well in the regular season are poised to do well in the postseason (duh). The thing is, if Tatum does return, then the makeup of the team will look noticeably different in the playoffs than it did for the first 3 quarters of the season. So even if the team fails to reach the 40-20 mark, they still have a great chance to be one of the outliers that gets the job done regardless.
Still, it would be pretty cool for the team to reach that goal and something the current construction of the team can hang their hat on. Like “look, we met the criteria of a contending team even without our superstar player.”
So, on to your topic questions:
- Do you think the Celtics can make it to 40 wins before 20 losses?
- Do you think this is a good benchmark to track for contenders?
- Do you think the rule applies to a team about to get back their star player from injury?
- Do you think the Celtics are winning the title this year?
- Insert your own follow-up questions and topics!