There's always something to be said about waiting too long. The Dallas Cowboys have done it time and time again, waiting until the market is set for them, and then having to pay millions more to sign a player they could've locked up months or even years before.
Cowboys Wire has already written about how the business aspect of billionaire Jerry Jones has reasons for waiting and overpaying his own players. The guaranteed money in a contract must be placed in non-interest-generating escrow. Jones, investing that money elsewhere, can earn revenue that can pay for the increased salary and then some.
It also buys time to ensure the player is worth the investment, but sometimes it burns the team, like it did with Micah Parsons. Still, if the player wants to sit near the top of the positional totem, the wisest move the Cowboys can make with WR George Pickens may be to tag him and just wait.
Here's why.
There are far too many variables at play where rushing to extend Pickens cuts off viable options to success.
For one, look at the upcoming NFL Draft. Most observers feel there are going to be around 12-15 first-round grades on the Cowboys' and most teams' draft boards. It's a thin draft. And while the Cowboys' needs lean heavily towards the defense, so do several teams picking before them. It is more likely the key defenders in this class are gone before Dallas gets on the clock at No. 12.
Anyone who spends times doing mock drafts runs into this issue continuously. Downs, Reese, Bain, Bailey, Styles and Delane are normally gone before pick No. 12. And if that happens, the remaining first-round grades are more than likely going to be one of three wide receivers: USC's Makai Lemon, Ohio State's Carnell Tate and Arizona State's Jordan Tyson.
If the Cowboys have already locked Pickens into a long-term deal, it would be roster malfeasance to then draft another wideout this early. Trade back options aren't guaranteed to be there. Dallas may have to pick the best available player, or reach for need; a waste of the draft slot.
Because there's no bonus money in a franchise tag, the Cowboys would still have the flexibility to make a WR pick. They could trade Pickens at any point without negative financial implications if they drafted another first-round WR. He could be traded in May, during training camp, in-season before the trade deadline, or after a second tag next spring.
The options are plentiful.
Even if they don't draft a top wideout, the Cowboys would get another year of seeing Ryan Flournoy grow and develop as a potential WR2.
Also, although it will be his full right to not sign the franchise tag and to stay away from team activities, Pickens would be doing some damage to his self-serving reputation. It wouldn't dry up potential suitors, this much talent will always find a home, but it would turn some pursuers off.
Pickens was always on the verge of stardom in Pittsburgh, but once he was paired with an elite QB like Dak Prescott and an elite co-star of WR CeeDee Lamb, he thrived. Along the way, though, Pickens grew a reputation as a trouble maker, who doesn't always follow team rules and can sometimes be a distraction.
The question of whether the Cowboys should reward him with top-market pay after just one season comes with the attractive option of buying at least one more year of evaluation.
If the Cowboys are willing to foot the full cap implication of a franchise tag, they can have Pickens for the 2026 season for $28 million. With Seattle's Jaxson Smith-Njigba looking to make more than the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase's $40.5 million average salary, the Cowboys risk having to pay around $35 million per year for a long-term deal with Pickens.
A second tag in 2027 would be for just $33.6 million a year, again still under the average of a top-three wideout. The single-year cap impact is not ideal, but the Cowboys could absolutely make it work.
If Pickens is willing to sign a deal for $31 million a year or less, then it makes sense for the Cowboys to pursue. But if he is looking to earn a top-three salary for his position, then it's in Dallas' best interest to tag him and wait for more things to play out.
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Free Agency: Cowboys best George Pickens contract strategy is patience