Timing is everything in the NFL market right now. The league is regularly seeing $25 million per year per team salary cap increases (roughly $800 million in cap increases league-wide). Clubs are also spending an average of 10 percent over the salary cap in cash spending for players, which is only compounding on top of those $25 million per year increases. The new meta is to lock in the players you’re confident in keeping to long-term deals as quickly as possible, before prices continue to rise. The leaders on this front are the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been executing this “pay early and lock in prices” plan for the last five or so years.
One of the Green Bay Packers’ biggest priorities this offseason should be to get a long-term deal done with receiver Christian Watson, who is eligible to earn an extension, despite recently signing a one-year extension, because of the unique structure of his deal. If the Packers are going to pay him long-term, they should make it a priority to get his contract signed before Alec Pierce signs a multi-year deal.
Here’s why.
First of all, Pierce is the sixth-best free agent in 2026, according to the consensus. If he doesn’t get a deal done with his Indianapolis Colts, he will be one of the hottest names on the open market and will almost certainly be the subject of a bidding war. If he does re-sign with the Colts, though, it would probably take a massive deal to get him to opt out of being the subject of a bidding war. Either way, he’s going to get paid very soon.
The biggest benefit that the Packers have right now is that Watson is still a year away from free agency, meaning that it’s on Watson to take on the risk of his 2026 performance, should an injury pop up or something along those lines. That’s one reason why Watson and Watson’s camp would probably like to get a deal done in 2026, not 2027. On Green Bay’s end, they probably want to get a deal done before the salary cap jumps up again in 2027 or Pierce potentially resets the market for a player of Watson’s talent.
Stylistically, it’s hard to find a better comp for Watson than Pierce. They’re both long, vertical receivers who produced best at the end of their rookie contracts and were both drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft. The comparisons are so similar that if negotiations happen between the Packers and Watson after the Pierce contract is inked, both sides will probably accept that Watson will be getting something close to a copy-paste job of Pierce’s deal, be it with Green Bay or elsewhere (if the Packers don’t have the stomach to pay it).
Below are the average per year (APY) of the top 22 receivers in the NFL under 30 years old, which is relevant because age is very much a factor for payment in the league:
- Ja’Marr Chase: $40,250,000
- Justin Jefferson: $35,000,000
- CeeDee Lamb: $34,000,000
- D.K. Metcalf: $32,999,882
- Garrett Wilson: $32,500,000
- A.J. Brown: $32,000,000
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: $30,002,500
- Brandon Aiyuk: $30,000,000
- Tee Higgins: $28,750,000
- Jaylen Waddle: $28,250,000
- D.J. Moore: $27,500,000
- Jameson Williams: $26,666,667
- DeVonta Smith: $25,000,000
- Nico Collins: $24,250,000
- Michael Pittman, Jr.: $23,333,333
- Jerry Jeudy: $17,500,000
- Khalil Shakir: $13,250,000
- Darnell Mooney: $13,000,000
- Rashod Bateman: $12,250,000
- Darius Slayton: $12,000,000
- Travis Hunter: $11,662,278
- Christian Watson: $11,000,000
There are not that many players making between Travis Hunter’s rookie contract APY and the $23 million per year right now — and there’s only one sub-30-year-old receiver between the $23.3 million and $13.25 million range, if you can believe it. Watson is already making an $11 million APY, which was the number negotiated when he still coming off his ACL tear. His APY will almost certainly increase after his 2025 performance.
Right now, the Packers might be able to negotiate this Watson contract between the massive gap between $23.3 million and $13.25 million per year. If Pierce, a similar player to Watson, hits the open market and signs, though, that option probably goes out the window, as the Pierce contract will inform both sides of what Watson’s market could be in 2027. That’s why timing is incredibly important for this extension, specifically. Green Bay has other deals they probably want to get done this offseason, notably Tucker Kraft, Devonte Wyatt and probably Lukas Van Ness, but this is the one potential extension where timing is a premium factor, because of the gaps in the receiver market and a player proxy (Pierce for Watson) expected to be on the market.
For what it’s worth, Spotrac, which has some really conservative estimates this year, expects Pierce to sign a $20.2 million per year deal this offseason. I’m going to guess that he’ll get similar to Jameson Williams, another speedster who is Detroit’s number two option and received $26.7 million per on his second contract in the league. Like Pierce and Watson, Williams was also drafted in the 2022 class.
Here’s how the receiver trio’s career stats have stack up:
- Williams: 148 receptions for 2,513 yards and 17 touchdowns
- Pierce: 157 receptions for 2,934 yards and 17 touchdowns
- Watson: 133 receptions for 2,264 yards and 20 touchdowns
It’s just a smart idea for Green Bay to get this contract done with Watson as soon as possible. The team shouldn’t wait for Pierce to get a Williams-like deal or get hit with the $28.8 million franchise tag this offseason.